June 24, 1999
Senator Orrin Hatch says his hope of being the Republican Presidential
nominee next year depends largely on the fate of Texas Governor George Bush.
But many Washington insiders doubt that Hatch would get the nod even if
Bush doesn't.
Charles Sherrill reports from our Washington bureau.
Washington is awash in pundits who make their living keeping a finger on the
nation's political pulse. They're saying news of an Orrin Hatch Presidential
bid does not appear to have made very many hearts skip a beat.
A Utahn running for President is rare enough to arouse interest.
But a Senator running for President is common as rain.
Political anaylst Charlie Cook says, "Every senator looks in a mirror and they
see a president."
Most of them fade fast.
Cook says, "I mean 1996 we saw Senator Arlen Specter up and run. Never made it
to the Iowa caucus."
Al Gore was a Senator when he first ran for Vice President.
But John Kennedy, in 1960, was the last to make the leap in one election.
So Senator Orrin Hatch has history against him.
"Where I think Senator Hatch is onto something is that there is some discomfort
within the Republican party about whether George Bush is experienced enough
politically," Cook says.
Governor Bush has won only one tough race in his entire career. A Presidential
marathon is a much bigger challenge, according to Cook.
"It's very important that he be tested and that somebody be standing there to
pick up the slack if he were to fall."
Plenty of someones are already in line but
Hatch thinks he's better.
"I bet if you did a survey of pollsters and pundits and said, who is the least
electable of these three republicans or four republicans: George Bush,
Elizabeth Dole, John McCain or Orrin Hatch, I would bet you that 90 percent of
them would say Orrin Hatch would be the least electable," Cook says.
Republicans won five out of six Presidential elections from '68 to '92.
After losing the last two, they're hungry for a winner.
Charlie Cook says that means they'll nominate a more moderate candidate
than Orrin Hatch.
