Dec. 3, 1999

Two months from now, the government will fly its specially equipped hurricane plane through Salt Lake snowstorms to see what happens during our dreaded lake effect. Science Specialist Ed Yeates reports it's part of a research project to develop more precise forecasts.

Friday's storm dumped almost 12 inches of snow in the Sandy area but very little in Bountiful. It was a classic example of our infamous lake effect where a not-so-big incoming storm is enhanced with the warm waters of the shallow Great Salt Lake.

KSL meteorologists Mark Eubank and Len Randolph were right on target when they predicted the Lake's furious coatails would flap mostly in the southeast part of the city. But research meteorologists now need even more.

Dr. James Steenburgh / U of U Research Meteorology: "IT'S BEING ABLE TO PREDICT HOW MUCH, WHEN, AND WHERE IT'S GOING TO FALL."

Dr. James Steenburgh, his colleagues and the National Weather Service in Salt Lake never had temperature instruments over the Great Salt lake until last year.

"IN PART FOR OLYMPIC WEATHER SUPPORT, WE ACTUALLY ARE COLLECTING REAL TIME LAKE TEMPERATURE DATA FROM TWO SITES IN THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND ARE INSTALLING A BUOY NEXT MONTH."

University of Utah meteorologists are also building advanced computer models of each lake effect storm. The computer paints a vivid picture like a band about 20 miles in width, stretching out from the center of the lake and hitting the Tooele area hard! In this case the band can drop two to three inches of snow per hour.

With these computer models, researchers can accurately add or take away a storm's ingredients.

"IT ALLOWS YOU TO PLAY GOD ESSENTIALLY. WE CAN TAKE THE LAKE OUT OF THE COMPUTER MODEL FOR EXAMPLE AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS. WE CAN CHANGE THE LAKE TEMPERATURE AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS. WE CAN CHANGE THE LAKE SALINITY AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AND SEE HOW IMPORTANT THESE EFFECTS ARE IN PRODUCING THESE STORMS."

ED YEATES, SCIENCE SPECIALIST: "EVEN THE SALINITY OR SALT CONTENT OF THE LAKE HAS AN EFFECT ON HOW HARD WE GET HIT."

Salinity actually reduces snow by about 10 percent. Without that saltiness, the lake effect would intensify some storms even more.